How to read an Express Entry draw

Every couple of weeks a number appears on the IRCC website and a few thousand people in Kerala check it against their own. Most of them are comparing the wrong things. This is how to read a draw properly, so the number tells you something true about your chances.

The four things a draw announces

Each round IRCC publishes the date, the type of draw, the number of invitations, and the lowest Comprehensive Ranking System score that was invited. All four matter, and the last one is the least useful on its own.

The type tells you who was in the running. A general draw invites anyone in the pool. A Canadian Experience Class draw invites only people with a year of Canadian work. A provincial nominee draw invites only people who already hold a nomination, which is why its cut-off is always above 700: the nomination alone is 600 points. A category-based draw invites only people whose occupation or French ability puts them in that category, and its cut-off is usually far lower than a general draw's.

The size tells you how deep IRCC went. Five hundred invitations reach a higher score than five thousand.

The cut-off is the score of the last person invited. It is not a threshold that will hold next time.

The tie-break date appears when several people share the cut-off score; the earlier profile wins.

The mistake that costs a year

Somebody with a score of 480 sees a healthcare draw at 430 and concludes they are comfortably above the line. They are not in the healthcare category, so that draw was never open to them. The general draws in the same month were in the 520s, and that is their line.

The reverse mistake is as common: a nurse with 440 sees general draws at 530 and gives up, when the category she belongs to has been inviting at 430.

So the first question is never "what was the cut-off". It is "which draws am I eligible for", and only then "what were their cut-offs".

How to know which draws are yours

• General and Canadian Experience Class: general draws are open to everyone in the pool; CEC draws require Canadian skilled work experience.
• Provincial nominee: only if a province has nominated you.
• Categories: healthcare and social services, science and engineering, trades, education, agriculture and agri-food, and French-language proficiency. Membership depends on your primary occupation code and, for the French category, a test result at the required level. IRCC lists the occupation codes in each category.

Look up your occupation code in the category lists before you look at a single cut-off.

Reading the trend, not the point

One draw tells you almost nothing. Six months of draws in your category tell you a great deal. If the last eight healthcare draws ranged from 420 to 470 and you are at 455, you are in the band; if you are at 400, you need points, not patience. Our draw tracker keeps every round with its category and cut-off so the trend is one screen rather than a hunt through press releases.

What to do with the reading

If you are above the recent band for a draw you qualify for, keep the profile current and make sure the documents for the 60-day window are ready; an invitation can arrive at any round. If you are below it, the choice is between adding points and waiting. The points that are actually available to most Indian applicants are language points, and the difference between IELTS 6.5 across and 8.0 listening with 7.0 elsewhere is typically 30 to 50 CRS points, which is more than most cut-off movements in a year.

If you are in no category and below the general band, the honest reading is that Express Entry as it stands is not your route, and a provincial programme or a different country is. That is a conclusion worth reaching in month one rather than month fourteen.

Run the free assessment; it tells you your score and the cut-offs of the draws you are actually eligible for, side by side.